New Yorkers Approve of de Blasio

Almost half of New Yorkers approve of Mayor de Blasio's performance thus far as mayor. A poll conducted showed that 49% of New Yorkers approved his performance verses 31% who disapproved it. The high level of support for him might be due to his strong effort to provide free prekindergarten, something that is being greatly appreciated by the city.

The poll wasn't all sunshine and rainbows for de Blasio though as the poll also states how 52% of New Yorkers were dissatisfied by de Blasio's efforts to address income inequality, and his efforts to make it easier for New Yorkers to find affordable housing, two things that were major priorities for him. But mainly the poll conducted shows that New Yorkers do have a great deal of support for de Blasio and approve of the job he is doing. 30% of residents polled thought that de Blasio actually cares about their needs and problem which was a lot higher of a percentage than Mayor Bloomberg. As his term continues I expect his support and approval ratings to increase dramatically if he can conduct successful resolutions about income inequality and affordable housing.

Congressional Opponents Start Targeting

Elise Stefanik targets Woolf's Social Security stance in her latest TV ad. Woolf answered back with his own ad calling Stefanik out on her not answering questions from the press about Social Security and how she "never pitched hay as a Washington insider."  

Woolf also challenges Stefanik on income inequality. Woolf would like to raise the Federal minimum wage to $10.10. He then stated "And while she’s talking with Boehner (Speaker of the House)," Woolf added, "Elise Stefanik should also call for the passage of legislation that would make college more affordable, close tax subsidies for big oil, and close the gender wage gap." But when later asked if he, Woolf, could disclose his personal taxes, Woolf shunned away saying "There’s a line that is a personal line that I don’t think we should cross in a Congressional race." 

Rep. Tim Bishop has come out and said that "One of the concerns is the number of U.S. citizens who have left our country to go join up with ISIS." During the speech Bishop said, "It is believed there have been some number up to 100 that have done that. It is also believed that some 40 of those who left this country to join up with ISIS have now returned to our country."

Rep. Tim Bishop also leads Lee Zeldin by 10 points in a recent Siena Poll. The last time they faced off in 2008 Bishop won 58% to 42%. The poll shows Bishop in the lead with 51% and Zeldin coming from behind with 41%. A close race where the people of the district are unfavorable of the House and the President.

Democrat advantage?

The Democratic Party has been handily out-competing the Republicans, at least in terms of fundraising. The Democratic Party (combining the Party, DNC, DCCC, and DSCC) has raised just shy of $1 billion compared to the Republicans (combining the Party, RNC, NRCC, NRSC) $.75 billion. A silver lining for the Republican Party is that they aren't financing as nearly much with debt as the Democrats.

With a clear advantage on this field, it should follow that Democrats are sweeping the elections by storm. This isn't the case. The House is widely expected to remain Republican-controlled and now control of the Senate is up in the air. It seems the Republican Party is getting more bang for their buck!

For a New York take, the parties are taking a reserved stance towards the state; they've spent less in NY than the past two midterm election cycles and are largely ignoring the competitive 21st district race. The Democrats gave Woolf (D) a paltry $4,000 while the Republicans donated exactly $0 to Stefanik (R).

Daily Gazette - Johnstown, NY

For their part, the Republican Party launched a recent media buy to attack Woolf's private business enterprise and out-of-district residence. Totaling $180,000, this is the largest play the parties have made thus far in the Woolf and Stefanik battle.

NCPR - Malone, NY

Fundraising and Money

A recent fundraiser in Western New York was held to support Florida Senator Marco Rubio this week. This event was held by a local businessman Jeremy Jacobs Jr. He held a reception costing $1,000 a person, and the dinner was $2,500 a entree. Rubio is thought to be a prospective Republican Presidential candidate in 2016.

In an article written by Tim Wu he argues how the Democratic Party is spending “millions” on their opponents campaign. In a conflict of interest their party is favoring Kathy Hochul a former representative and current Democrat.

Tim Wu (left) and Zepher Teachout (right) (AP Photo)

Wu says how in the early 20^th century the New York legislature passed a law making it illegal for parties to use money to affect the outcome of a primary. Zepher has challenged the party of which is still being decided upon. Governor Cuomo who is behind this says he is exercising his First Amendment supported by “Citizens United theory.” Sadly the ruling will most likely not be heard until after the primary.

Former County Executive Jack Doyle is employed by the GOP, his job is to raise as much money as possible for his Party. The GOP contracts with Doyle and he works mostly on commission, not willing to divulge how much. He did say he on average raises about ten times more than he makes.

The GOP normally raises more money than the Democratic Party and spends it too. This year's election cycle in Monroe County, “local Republicans report roughly $734,000 in total receipts so far; Democrats reported about $462,000”.

NY-21st Outshining Neighboring Race

The NY-23^rd Congressional election is shaping up to be one of the most expensive House races in the state. The Republican incumbent, Tom Reed, has outpaced his Democratic challenger, Martha Robertson, is terms of fundraising by nearly a 2:1 ratio ($2.5m and $1.5m, respectively). This doesn’t tell the whole story however. Robertson, although raising significantly less, has roughly the same amount of money waiting to be spent.

Analyzing the finances reveals that just over half ($1.4m) of Reed’s contributions come from PACs and Large Contributions (between $200 and $2,500) account for another $1 million. By comparison, Robertson is receiving two-thirds of her money from Large Contributions, while her Small Contribution receipts account for one-fifth of her total.

This race has seen very little outside spending. The incumbent Reed is already expected to win according to RealClearPolitics, so it follows outside groups are taking little interest. Nearby races like the NY-21^st see more outside spending because of the expected tightness of the outcome. Thesouthwestern NY-23rd district has seen only $50,000 in outside spending compared to $1 million spent in the 21^st district. Interestingly, the majority of the money coming out-of-state and out-of-district is going towards the Reed campaign and little is funneled to the Robertson HQ.

A relatively expensive House race in New York that is really not all that locked up for Reed, according to another source. Could the outside groups simply be focusing on the neighboring, open race in the North Country and expecting the two-term incumbent to come out on top? The money trails seem to suggest that.

Is the Attorney General Race Closer Than we Think?

An internal poll conducted by In The Field Research may actually hint at a John Cahill victory over incumbent democrat Eric Schneiderman for attorney general. The poll finds Schneiderman leading Cahill by a 36.8%  to a 29.7% margin, which is a lot closer than public opinion polls have found. A reason for that may be that the poll was probably constructed and presented in a biased way to rally support for the Cahill campaign who is expected to lose to the incumbent. The poll of 600 voters also found that only 20.7% of voters want to reelect Schneiderman, regardless of who runs against him, and that the majority of the electorate either doesn't know or has no opionion of Schneiderman. A memo with information about the race that included the internal polling information was sent to donors of John Cahill and was not meant to be public. Another reason why I think that this polling information was just a way for the Cahill campaign to rally some support, especially since Schneiderman expects to be campaigning with Mayor de Blasio and Gov. Cuomo in the next few weeks.

Recent Democratic Party Activity

 There were surprising results when Zephyr Teachout challenged Governor Cuomo for the Democratic primary for Governor. She set an "unattainable" goal of 30% of primary votes. Yet she surpassed her target and hit almost 35%. Her support lies in a geographic configuration. Other than the support of unions, she gained almost every county in the “state’s eastern half, north of Westchester.” Also, winning in various neighborhoods throughout New York City such as Manhattan, Brooklyn, Upper West Side and “ beating him (Cuomo) two-to-one in the 66^th assembly district.”

Zephyl Teachout (New York Times)

“In the days since the primary much has been said about Ms. Teachout's impact on [Cuomo's] political future.” says Ginia Bellafante. What could this signal for Governor Cuomo's voters?

Bellafante's suggests that Teachout is also affecting NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio. She gained support among voters in the same areas he did. Which was surprising enough because they seemed to butt heads in most cases.

A Quinnipiac poll last month reports that the Mayors approval rating among African Americans is 65%, 15% larger than his approval rating over all. Simultaneously, his approval among Whites has fallen to 36% from 41% last June. 

Countdown to Scottish Vote Nears

In less than 24 hours the referendum for Scottish independence will commence. The latest polling suggests a familiar gender aspect to the vote that Americans are accustom to. Women aged 55 or older are more apt to vote NO than younger women and men. This may be the push the NO vote's been looking for. So, the gender gap is alive and well on the other side of the pond.

British PM David Cameron, who's not exactly loved in Scotland is a NO supporter. He's got some company in the States and is joined by President Barack Obama and former President Bill Clinton. Among Scottish elites support for independence is divided.

Cameron's government is promising greater Scottish independence if the NO vote succeeds but polls suggest Scots are skeptical of English promises.

(Russell Cheyne/Reuters)

NO supporters hosted Orange Order fife and drum corps, mostly from Northern Ireland, to parade this past weekend. Reminiscent of  July Twelfth celebrations, Scottish Unionists may have inadvertently kicked a sectarian hornet's nest with potentially long-term consequence. In the short-term, these events may trigger increased YES votes among Scotland's Irish who's memories of the Orange Order are anything but favorable.

Gubernatorial Campaign AD's

The Erie Co. launched a recent ad utilizing sports as a means to sway the vote come Election Day in New York State's race to the governors mansion. The ad paints the Gov. Cuomo as the right man for the people of New York because of his efforts to retain the Buffalo bills. Rob Astorino is depicted as an outsider whose allegiance belongs to Florida's Miami dolphins.

Will this be effective? Should voters personal preferences for a sports team weigh heavily as we consider the right person to run the state. As knowledgeable voters (at least that is what I would like to assume) making the decision on who to vote for should be based on who you believe will best serve your interests in Albany.

The light hearten nature of Rob Astorino’s parody really appeals to people in general. The ad portrays Astorino as your average Joe trying to accomplish something big. Astorino has enlisted the help of some recognizable faces in New York state like Michael Kay who is the voice of the New York Yankees and also hosts his own sports radio talk show in the metropolitan area. Realistically speaking this ad isn't going to close the deficit at the polls, but it’s certainly an interesting way to advertise a candidate.

The twos AD's depict the two candidates in a different light, Cuomo as man using dirty tactics and Astorino as the underdog people usually root for. 

A Little Corruption Doesn’t Hurt

With the primary come and gone it looks like the Democrats have a chance to take full control of the State Legislature. In Queens democratic voters went against Malcolm A. Smith. He is accused of trying to bribe his way onto the 2013 New York City mayoral ballot as a Republican.

In Brooklyn Senator John Sampson who is facing criminal charges easily wins the primary against three other challengers. That shows you how important being the incumbent in an election is. What makes this story even better is the fact that Sampson’s district is so heavily democratic the chances for re-election into the State Senate are very high. Major de Blasio and Governor Cuomo did not want to see Sampson back in Albany. In fact Mayor de Blasio and Gov. Cuomo had endorsed Dell Smitherman, a former political coordinator for the powerful health care workers union 1199 SEIU, in the race.

Aaron Woolf who is running for a congressional seat in Upstate New York found himself in hot water recently. It was reported that Woolf didn’t always pay his employees at the Urban Rustic, a local eatery he owns down in Brooklyn. Woolf is running for the 21^st district in New York and he is one of the senators pushing to raise minimum wage. Isn’t that kind of Ironic. Urban Rustic, which was the grocery store and a restaurant owned by Woolf immediately denied the claims. It was also reported that Urban Rustic had 83 health code violations and were also in trouble with government for unpaid tax bills from 2008 to 2011.

Controversy Emerges in Close Congressional Races

A democratic supporter, Mike Flynn, questions Stefanik's personal life. Democratic candidate Aaron Woolf distances himself from Flynn by saying the call for her personal life "reprehensible and antithetic to what this campaign does or should represent." The Stefanik campaign spun this on Woolf and said that Mike Flynn is a Woolf Volunteer. 

Questions arise when Rep. Tim Bishop got a campaign donation after receiving firework permits for his son's Bar Mitzvah. Case closed with no charges for Justice Department, still open in the Ethics Committee. 

Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello interviewed with North County Public Radio and spoke on his 9/11 ideas. He claims that corporate America and corporate media changed the story of 9/11 and that this is a "certain horrific and nonsensical fairy tale our government has sold us."  

With Republican Zeldin still in a tight race with Bishop in the Eastern Long Island District he turns to House Speaker John Boehner from Ohio to help him fundraise. The reception will be held September 20th. 

The G.O.P will host a Meet and Greet in Potsdam on Wednesday, September 17th, to fundraise for candidate Rob Astorino running for the office of governor against Andrew Cuomo in New York. This is also in New York's 21st district, where Stefanik is inching away from Aaron Wolf. 

Keeping the Independent Democratic Conference Alive

After the last week’s primary, the vocal speaker of the Independent Democratic Conference Jeff Klein defeated the experienced Oliver Koppell by a 34-point margin, getting about 66 percent of the vote. Klein explains how important the Independent Democratic Conference is for the democrats as they “hold true democratic values, but at the same time make the government function better.” It seemed as if the race for senate in the 34^th district was going to be tight as Koppell launched a campaign contending that Mr. Klein’s power-sharing agreement with Senate Republicans marked a betrayal of the Democratic Party. But it came to no avail as Koppell only managed to harbor 33.2 percent of the vote.

(State Senator Jeff Klein giving victory speech last Tuesday night)

It was not all fun and games at the campaign office of Jeff Klein’s last week. Apparently, a couple of people broke into Jeff Klein’s office last week and stole his campaign phone. The “thieves” who stole his phone has been making calls to people all along the east coast aggravating callers who have no idea who Jeff Klein is. One person from Massachusetts said, 'I don't know who Jeff Klein is, but could you stop calling here?'".  Klein campaign counsel, Stanley Schlein is calling the robbery an “act of voter suppression” and he stated that they have informed the New York State Attorney General and the United States Department of Justice. 

SHOULD ASTORINO QUIT NOW

The race for the New York State governor's mansion features Rob Astorino (R) and the incumbent Andrew Cuomo (D). The republican party's attempt the capture the governor's mansion in 2014 doesn't look like it is going to end well and could very well be an embarrassing defeat. Astorino would need a miracle from the heavens to surpass Cuomo in the polls - and ballot boxes. The governor has many advantages over his adversary including statewide name recognition -among others... This race is likely to end badly for the challenger. Don't believe me? See for yourself

The State of the County

The financial picture of St. Lawrence County became even more stark today with the news that revenue from sales tax is expected to be $2 million short of what had been budgeted. Republican County Treasurer, Kevin Felt (pictured below), says the pressure will be on the Democratic majority to cut spending rather than increase property taxes in an election year. Felt says of the legislature's five year plan, "The promise they made in their five-year plan was to stay within the tax cap, increase the sales tax and reduce the property tax."

(Kevin Felt - Source: County Treasurer Website)

At a meeting of the Heuvelton Village Board, County Legislator Joe Lightfoot "delivered what was effectively a stump speech for change to Heuvelton officials, reading from a “shopping list” of problems facing county government, and ticking off a myriad of issues he said were all fiscally related." Mr. Lightfoot is one six legislators running unopposed (three unopposed from both parties), but on the topic of reelection he says, “I would love to see six of the nine Democrats on the board gone.”

In his typical tongue-in-cheek form, Mr. Lightfoot points out how monies are currently handled, “There’s a money tree and the county treasurer reaches up and plucks what he needs. Then he puts it in the fund balance, and we write checks on it. And there’s also a little pixie dust mixed into it.” It appears after years of fantasy budgeting this fairytale might not have a happy ending for Democratic incumbents. 

(Judge Richards swearing in Legislator Lightfoot - Source: SLC website)