Post Election Roundup - NY 18th Focus

The Republican swing this election cycle came up to the NY-18th shores but ebbed, just shy of a 1.5% loss of former Congresswoman Nan Hayworth (R). Looking at the data provided by the New York State Board of Elections tells us that Sean Patrick Maloney's narrow win boiled down to Orange County, in which his 4,000 vote lead overshadowed his loss of Putnam County (he won the parts of Westchester Duchess counties by less than 1,000 votes each).

joemygod.BlogSpot.com

Siena polling found Nan Hayworth down by at least five points before the election, underrepresenting Putnam County voters in the poll. Hayworth won Putnam County by a substantial 9% margin, nearly erasing Maloney's lead entirely. Perhaps a more representative poll by Siena would have found Hayworth in a tighter race and maybe turnout would have been higher. In Siena's defense, however, their polling methods attempt to account for population variations between counties. Orange County's 51% against Putnam's 26% in the poll makes statistical sense when many more people live in Orange County than Putnam.

Maloney's fundraising advantage certainly did not hurt his campaign. He was able to raise over four times the amount of small donations and twice as many large donations. Hayworth self-funded her campaign to the cool tune of $635,000 but relied less on PAC money than Maloney.

Back At Home

Tuesday, voters decided to flip our Legislature here in St. Lawrence County. Democrats were left with five seats and Republicans ten on a fifteen member board. Though this board will not start term until January, 9 Democrats will still be serving until then.

                                       

                                             (Google.com)

Republican Chair Tom Jenison reported voters were upset with county financial decisions, four years of borrowing and spending. Though borrowing was necessary. "I really believe they didn't like the borrowing," Mr. Jenison said.

For the Democrats, Party Chair Mark Bellardini says "It looks like our people didn't show up at the polls. The republicans had a large voter turnout and that was expected.

Looking towards the future Incumbent Joeseph Lightfoot Thinks the new majority will have the push to get improvements in the countys fiscal agenda. Quoting “We have people who have a lot of expertise in the financial world,” Mr. Lightfoot said. “We’ll rely on them to help us save taxpayers’ money.”

The county has steadily been borrowing more and more year after year. $8.5 million in 2011, $12 million in 2012, and $10 million in both 1013, and 2014. We will see what this change in majority will bring for St. Lawrence County.

Post Election Roundup - NY 21st Focus

The wake of the 2014 election cycle has left Democratic candidates across the country smashed up against a rocky electoral shore. Republicans made huge gains nationally, both in the Senate and in the House of Representatives, and had a strong showing in New York's Governor race. New York's House delegation went from 21 Democrats down to 18, icing the Republican majority to their largest in nearly a century.

Elise Stefanik (R-21), Lee Zeldin (R-1) and John Katko (R-24) handily beat their Democrat opponents Aaron Woolf, Tim Bishop, Dan Maffei, respectively. Sean Maloney (D-18) narrowly held his seat against former Republican Congresswoman Nan Hayworth; even Michael Grimm (R-11), indicted on almost two dozen charges of corruption, defeated Domenic Recchia by 14 points. Louise Slaughter's (D-25) incumbency hangs in the balance of absentee ballots.

Examining the 21st District race revealed bipartisan report for Stefanik, capturing a majority (53%) of the vote no one thought she would attain due to a split liberal ticket. Aaron Woolf (D) lost by a full ten points, accounting on that split liberal ticket Matt Funiciello (G) grasped with an impressive 10% showing. But let's dig a little deeper.

The county breakdown is important to understand what regions of the massive 21st district voted for either candidate. I say either candidate, from the Democrats and Republicans, but it cannot be forgotten that Funiciello won a quarter of the Warren County vote. Stefanik was beaten in several counties, such as Clinton, Essex and Franklin, but her smashing leads in Jefferson and Saratoga propelled her ahead. Our own St. Lawrence County chose Stefanik over Woolf by an eight point margin, giving Funiciello his average 10%.

digital-topo-maps.com

New York: How Low Can You Go?

Although midterm elections usually have a significantly lower voter turnout than presidential election years, this year’s turnout in New York State was the lowest since the 1970’s. This exceptionally low voter turnout in the state was evidently seen in the gubernatorial race between Governor Andrew Cuomo and his Republican opponent Rob Astorino. The governor was reelected despite receiving the fewest number of votes of any New York governor since Franklin Roosevelt in1930. The catch about this statistic is that the population of New York has gone up from 12.6 million in 1930 to19.7 million so this just goes to show how low this year’s voter turnout actually was.  

 

                                                              (The Buffalo News)

 

Only 3.7 million out of the 10.8 million active voters in New York decided to go out and cast their vote in Tuesday’s election. This was the first time that voter turnout dipped below the 4 million mark in the state, and typically a turnout of 4.3 million is considered to be a low turnout so this year’s turnout might be something to monitor more closely in state elections to come.

What factors could have contributed to a historically low voter turnout? This is the question that many political scientists in the state are going to be trying to figure out in the upcoming days and months. One potential cause of the low turnout could be that many races in the state are virtually not competitive whatsoever. For example, the Republican candidates in Upstate New York were predicted to win by significantly large margins as were the Democratic candidates in New York City and the surrounding areas. Knowing that a certain candidate is going to win decreases voter turnout because the members of the predicted winning candidate’s party aren’t going to vote because they don’t have to, and members of the losing candidate’s party aren’t going to vote because they know that their candidate isn’t going to win no matter what so they feel as if their vote is pointless.

 A solution for this lingering problem, and one that could increase voter turnout across the state is to redraw districts to make them more competitive. This would work extremely well in theory because competition increases voter turnout, but will state officials actually do such a thing? I think not. They would rather redraw districts to increase their chances of being reelected which just further decreases voter turnout. So another and more likely solution would be to have term limits on state officials and representatives. This in return would make elections more competitive because when an incumbents aren’t in the election it makes the race more competitive and both parties spend more money on the campaigns where there isn’t an incumbent.

The was a close call

After yesterday's elections, many were surprised by the margin of victory the governor won by. We all expected a landslide victory but did not see that. Taking into account the star power behind Cuomo, the money and the incumbency his victory should have been by a larger margin. They say a victory is a victory. This governor now has to make better decisions in the next 4 years as governor if he plans on running for a third term. And that's all she wrote.

1. Election results

   Last updated Nov 5 at 4:09 PM

   1. SENATE
   2. HOUSE
   3. GOVERNOR

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   NY, Governor - 99.73% reporting

   Andrew Cuomo53.98%

   Democrat1,918,644

   Rob Astorino40.58%

   Republican1,442,392

   Howie Hawkins4.88%

   Green173,510

   Michael McDermott0.44%

   Libertarian15,582

   Steven Cohn0.13%

   Other4,547

   Source: AP

A Second Term

(NY Times)

          In what some might call a large victory, Governor Andrew Cuomo was reelected yesterday with just less than a 14 point lead. Which compared to his original victory is not a landslide by any means.

New York Governor Results

CANDIDATE	PARTY	VOTES	PCT.
Andrew M. Cuomo*	Democrat	1,918,644	54.0%
Rob Astorino	Republican	1,442,392	40.6
Howie Hawkins	Green	173,510	4.9
Michael McDermott	Libertarian	15,582	0.4
Steven Cohn	Other	4,547	0.1

99% reporting | (New York Times)

* Incumbent

           "We are just getting started," Said Governor Cuomo last night in a Manhattan hotel ballroom. This is another chance for him to show what he can get done. In his last term he was credited to stopping property tax increases, numerous victories in legalizing same-sex marriages, and tightening gun control laws.

           Now in this upcoming term he has his sights on rebuilding infrastructure, creating upstate New York jobs, improving our public school systems, and even going as far as modernizing some airports. In the wake of his reelection he has an egar eye ahed says reporter Thomas Kaplan from the NY Times.  Putting it more directly Cuomo Said "Keep this state moving forward."

           On the other side of the tabel we had oponent Rob Asorino in White Plains, NY. Saying he pondered whether the Governor had "heard some of the cries of New Yorkers." With election booths closed its safe to say both candidates are better now that the battle is over.

Will the Low Voter Turnout in New York City Affect the Governor’s Race?

Local Republican Assemblyman Steve Mclaughlin had some interesting comments about the governor’s race at an Astorino rally in Brunswick. Mclaughlin explained the possibility of an extremely low voter turnout in New York City could result in an Astorino win. Mclaughlin went on explain that he thinks that New York City voters are lazy and have no intention to go out and vote. Many New York City Democrats were outraged by Mclaughlin comments. Representative Charles Rangel said that the comments were extremely offensive to the 8-million hardworking residents in New York City. Also Rangel believes that the Astorino campaign should apologize on behalf on the of Assemblyman Steve Mclaughlin. City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito said that the latest attempts coming from the Astorino campaign are sad and pathetic and saying things like this is reason why people believe he is too extreme for governor. Major Bill de Blasio was not too happy about these comments either. Blasio believed that the comments made by Mclaughlin would only motivate New York City voters to go out and vote on Tuesday. At a campaign rally today in Times Square , Andrew Cuomo attacked the Republicans with a fiery speech. He criticized the Republicans, saying their idea of politics is very “simple.” “Their story is, it’s every man for himself, it’s every woman for herself, that you’re on your own, get what you can.” Cuomo stated.

On the other side Astorino believes that he still has a solid chance to win governor. At a campaign rally in Brunswick, Astorino compared his campaign to the former Republican governor George Pataki. George Pataki was known as the underdog who beat Andrew Cuomo father; Mario Cuomo in the 1994 race for New York State governor. At the rally Astorino ripped Cuomo saying that for Halloween Cuomo was the Cowardly Lion and Pinocchio. He was the Cowardly Lion because he only agreed to one televised debate. And he was Pinocchio because he told lies about the Astorino campaign. Assemblyman Steve Mclaughlin also attended the rally in Brunswick. At the rally Mclaughlin criticized New Jersey governor Chris Christie for not really funding for the Astorino campaign.

It is Election Day!

Later today, I will update this post on who won these two seats that I have been covering since September.

In my projection from reading the polls and understanding what is happening with these two seats, I and multiple others like the Washington Post think Stefanik is going to win the 21st District. It will be interesting to see if see still holds that 18% lead the Siena poll gave her the other week but either way Stefanik will most likely win this seat. 

As for the first district, it is a trickier situation. I am projecting Zeldin to win based on the ads and rhetoric I am hearing from my home town. Do not take my word for this though because this race is a tossup and it depends on who goes to the polls on this cloudy morning down on Long Island. 

This would mean that Bill Owens (D) seat would then become republican and the seat that Tim Bishop has been holding onto since 2003 will also be republican. That would be two more seats for the GOP in a largely democratic state. 

I leave you with this,

GO OUT AND VOTE!

Broome County Interesting Look at the Voter Turnout

With Election Day only a day away, Broome County lawmakers thought of a innovative way to attract new volunteers to help out the polling places. There are calling this new approach, the Adopt a Polling Place program. This is very similar to the Adopt a Highway program that is established in New York State. Under this new program non-profit organizations will provide people to volunteer for election inspector jobs. Local officials stated that 564 inspectors would be needed in the 141 polling locations located in Broome County. Broome County Legislator, Daniel J. Reynolds said that this new piece of legislature would create new relationships with non-profits all around Broome County. He also stated that this new “resolution will establish new accountability and would establish a different pool of inspectors for the Board of Elections.” On Friday, the Broome County Legislature approve of the new program. This program has already received bi-partisan support.

  Before the polls open up on Tuesday, the Broome County Board of Elections were out in the county reminding voters to vote by giving them the information they needed. With the governor’s race pretty much locked up the Board of Elections still expected a high turnout from 6 a.m. to 9p.m. In Broome County there are about 111,000 active voters but for the people who are registered to vote that can not make it Broome County officials have encouraged voters to fill out an absentee ballot. Broome County Board of Elections deputy commissioner, Karen Davis said that the county is expecting a seventy to 80 percent voter turnout at this year’s election. She goes on to say that Election Board has urged people to go and vote, as there are key races in the county that could change the political sphere statewide.

Win or Lose we Booze

I am not quiet sure if Astorino is trying to say “win or lose we booze” or he is just being very delusional. With New Yorkers going to the polls in less than 24 hours and a 20 point deficit, the chances of victory are very slim. “Astorino continues to insist he will defy the polls, which show him down by at least 20 points, in the same way Pataki, then a little known Republican state senator, came back to defeat Cuomo's father, three-term Gov. Mario Cuomo, in 1994. He's thinking back to '94 when his father was running for reelection and he was going up against somebody who nobody thought could win and all of a sudden New York spoke very loudly." What Astorino fails to grasp is that the upset Pataki pulled off didn’t have him 20 points behind his opponent a day before the election. The attempts to capture the old republican glory has been a common theme in Astorino’s campaign

On Saturday Astorino received a not so warm welcoming to Syracuse when he came to speak on key issues on the election. Astorino talked about reforms in New York’s health care system and giving more power to the counties to choose the additional benefits it gave to its residents.

Astorino’s wife found herself defending her husband recently when Cuomo’s ads claimed that Astorino supported guns in the classroom. This claim really hit home because the wife of Astorino is a public school teacher. “Astorino and his wife, Sheila, were on the Fox program because of an online ad she cut last week taking Cuomo to task for his negative ads and the impact they've had on the couple's kids. The law straw for Sheila Astorino, who is a public school teacher, was an ad claiming her husband supports allowing guns in the classroom. In actuality, Rob Astorino said he supported a gun safety training program that an upstate rural school district offers its students.”