Sparks and Debates

In the First Congressional District a debate is coming on on Thursday, October 23. Lee Zeldin and Incumbent Tim Bishop will face off with questions from their constituents. "Readers are asked to submit questions for the candidates by email to mailbag@pressnewgroup.com" 

The race that some polls show tied is turning into name calling. Lee Zeldin came out and called Bishop a back bencher, close to calling Bishop a bench warmer in Congress. "During 12 years in office, Zeldin charged, Bishop has had only four bills signed into law, all renaming post offices. He, however, said he’s had 48 bills passed on a wide range of issues including protecting military families, cutting taxes, eliminating the MTA payroll tax and elimination of the saltwater fishing license fee." Zeldin trying to show people that Bishop has not done much for his people and that he, Zeldin, would be a good change.

In New York 21st District there was a debate on Wednesday, October 15. There was all three candidates in attendance, Stefanik, Woolf, and Funiciello. The moderators started the debate by asking questions and then the candidates themselves can ask questions to each other. During this time minimum wage was brought up and Woolf said that "67 percent are in favor of raising the minimum wage." Woolf was trying to emphasize that the minimum wage should be raised and then Stefanik came out with a snappy remark looking straight into the camera and said “You deserve a raise. I hope after Nov. 4, you get the raise you’ve earned. Aaron Woolf has lost credibility on the issue.” She is referring to a false claim that was made that Woolf was not paying his employees minimum wage, which was debunked and now is thoroughly misleading. 

In an article recently posted by PostStar, it breaks down the economics of the campaign. It starts off showing how Woolf is outspending Stefanik on TV air time by around $500,000. He is doubling the amount of money that Stefanik and the GOP in putting into the race. The breakdown can be seen here.

Third Party in Albany Stirring Political Stew Up

New York State politics has taken an interesting turn with the addition of a third caucus in the Albany legislative body. The Independent Democratic Caucus (IDC) formed in 2011 after the majority Democrats were shook with scandal and have allied with the Republicans until just last month. Although this gave the Republicans a clear majority, they won barely more seats than their Democratic opponents. The recent divorce from the majority party, for the second time, leaves a power vacuum in Albany just begging to be filled this November.

It should be noted that party affiliation and caucus membership are not always the same party. The Democratic Party has a majority in terms of getting their candidates elected, yes, but once in Albany any legislator is free to join a caucus. A caucus is a membership in legislating that coordinates policy and voting. What complicates the New York State legislature is many legislators under the majority Democratic banner broke ranks and joined the newly founded IDC and one even caucuses with the GOP.

Currently, the Democratic Caucus dwarfs the Republican Caucus combined with the IDC, 35-26 (with two vacant seats) but as the IDC announced their separation from both parties, the Republican Caucus shrinks considerably (30-26) and must renegotiate their political clout with a competitive minority party.

Jeffrey Klein - nydailynews.com

The IDC caucus members, David Valesky (D-53), David Carlucci (D-38), Jeffrey Klein (Republican caucusing-80), Diane Savino (D-23), Tony Avella (D-11); now wield a distinct advantage going into the newest legislative session. Their break from the Republican Caucus was orchestrated by Governor Cuomo and New York City mayor De Blasio because, according to Jeffrey Klein, the IDC was to be threatened with primary challenges by the Democratic flank if they continued their partnership with the GOP. The IDC is now arguably more independent than before, not beholden by Democratic threats and by Republican politics inside the legislature.

On The Campaign Road

          A recent meeting between Gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino and the editorial board of the Syracuse Media Group led to some good discussion. It also was a great chance for Astorino to get some good PR and share his positions.
          He spoke about lowering corporate tax rates, and cutting current business incentives. He believes lowering tax rates and cost of utilities to welcome new business would do more than making lots of tax breaks. While also looking at hydrofracking at a good boost for the economy, "I think it's the right thing to do for this state," says Astorino.

(Dick Blume: Syracuse.com)

          Astorino stressed how he doesn't think courts should determine how states money gets spent, referring to the states funding system in urban schools. He thinks the state should work on fixing the way the schools spend the money. Keeping on the topic of the state he believes the public should not finance campaigns, and would like to see more diligent campaign contributions records, say every 24 hours. Also the state should use the expected $5 Billion from settlements on infrastructure, such the Tappen Zee Bridge.
          If elected governor he advocates for more local meetings as well as a firm connection with the press. He expressed the fact that if elected he would be facing a Democratic-controled Assembly and the same for the Senate. Regarding this he said he would not be afraid to use "my veto pen", if legislatures go "hog wild".
          While i'm sure no one would call this election very competitive it has shown to have some sparks fly. With the polls spread at around Cuomo +25, this leaves Astorino with a huge Gap to fill. But as quoted in an article by Teri Weaver, "Can I guarantee you I'm going to win?" Astorino posed. No, but neither can Cuomo, he added.

Stealing the Show?

Last night's NY-21st debate started out civil, but quickly turned sour. Personal jabs were thrown across the aisle about oil payrolls, addressing who is actually running in the race, continued interruptions, and... back again to oil campaign financing.

Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello was able to participate, something rare on the national stage. Funiciello performed well as a third party candidate, taking different positions than both major candidates, frontrunner Elise Stefanik (R) and Aaron Woolf (D). Woolf and Stefanik sparred off debating the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and Funiciello offered a third path, along with the reason why Funiciello says he is running; to offer a choice between the two major parties. The common theme of the debate was Stefanik and Woolf sharing personal jabs and Funiciello asking to share the stage.

pressrepublican.com

Matt Funiciello's major talking point was his native North Country background, attempting to paint himself as the candidate who voters can trust because he is more of a "Joe the Plumber" than an elitist. He pointed to his small apartment rather than million dollar home and his campaign financing transparency. According to Opensecrets, though, there is no evidence of any transparency besides his claim of In-District campaign funding.

He stood by his call for Aaron Woolf to drop out of the race because he, quite openly, that the two party system is fraudulent and does not produce results, as he cites Congress' historically low approval rating. Funiciello believes that if Woolf dropped out of the race, he could stand against Stefanik instead of splitting the liberal vote.

Funiciello adds spice to an otherwise ending race. Although not well known in the district, he is steadfast in his policy choices and did not face much opposition from the two major candidates in his ideology either. He has been able to run a thin but nimble campaign based off incredibly little money and managed to participate in two debates. Will Matt Funiciello gain a fourth quarter wind?

Money Talks

According to the latest Siena College Poll, two term incumbent Michael Grimm holds a narrow 44-40 lead over Democrat  Domenic Recchia in the polls for New York's 11th congressional district. The tight race in the 11th district could even be tighter now because Grimm's Democratic challenger Domenic Recchia has been generating some momentum the past few weeks. The momentum that Recchia has been picking up is due in large part to the fundraising efforts done by himself and his campaign committee. It has been reported that with less than three weeks left until election day, the Recchia campaign still has $987,470 left in the tank compared to the wimpy amount of $625,000 that the Grimm campaign has left.

Another reason why this is such a tightly contested race is because in April, Grimm was indicted on federal charges that he hired undocumented immigrants at Healthalicious (his health food restaurant). His trial is set for December, and there's a possibility that he could face jail time which would cause him to have to resign his from his position. This is making many voters uneasy and is costing him the support of many voters, many of which were supporters of him before the indictment, and many of whom are residents of Staten Island.

The Recchia campaign, along with the DCCC are using Grimm's indictment for their advantage and have spent $1.3 million on television ads since August 12th to educate voters on Grimm's indictment. And so far it looks as if their efforts are working, because more than half of all voters and even 21 percent of Grimm's supporters say that they are less likely to support him because of his current indictment. 

With all of that being said, and all of the money that the Recchia campaign has spent attacking Grimm's credibility it's hard to believe that Grimm is the one who holds a narrow lead in the polls. The reason for that is the power that being the incumbent and having name recognition can bring to a candidate. So it's really not all that surprising that Grimm leads Recchia by 14 points with Independent voters, has support of more than a quarter of registered Democrats, and leads by 11 points with males.

                           Grimm and Recchia debate at Fort Hamilton Senior Center in Brooklyn

Star Power

         

      The Governors mansion of New York is up for grabs come November 4^th of this year. In reality it seems we have a clear winner already. The incumbent Cuomo seems to have this race in the bag. If one was look at these two candidates side by side, we will notice some stark differences. Cuomo’s war chest of over 35 million dollars trumps Astorino’s 6 million. The democratic candidate is more likely to win the race, but if we look at the polls you will notice a downward trend in the in numbers for the governor.  

                  

   

           Cuomo has something important to winning an election that Astorino does and that is star power endorsements. Cuomo has endorsements from powerful democrats like the Clintons. Astornio’s biggest endorser is Michael Kay who is an announcer for the New York Yankees. This seems like a joke because Astorino fails to see that it helps. With 3 weeks left in the campaign, Astorino would need an endorsement from Jesus himself to win the race.

Congressional Race Gets Even Hotter

          At a news conference on Staten Island this past week, Representative Grimm was asked if his numerous accounts of federal indictment were swaying voters to his challenger Domenic Recchia (D). Grimm rebutted with a statement referring to how party machines will spend un godly amounts of money on making the issue about anything but the issue.
          With Grimm's trial around the corner, specifically right after this falls elections. It will be interesting to see if voters are weary to vote for someone who might be forced to resign. " Mr.Recchia had drawn about even in the polls with Mr. Grimm, whose base on Staten Island, a Republican redoubt in a liberal city, seems mostly unbothered by his legal problems." Says Jason Horowitz of New York Times.
          In an interesting approach Grimm told voters to stay with him at the very least to have a clean slate of voters if he were to be forced to resign. That is if he were to get reelected and then be found guilty on any accounts. He would most likely be forced to resign, and thus have to be a special election for his congressional seat. With all new opponents.
          Currently the standing are as follows: Michael Grimm (R) with 44%, Domenic Recchia (D) 40%, Henry Bardel (G) 4%, Undecided 12% (Siena College Research Institute).

The Gender Gap in the Governor's Race

Recent polling data have shown that Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo has a 51% to 31% lead over his Republican opponent Rob Astorino. The gender gap was one of the main reasons why Cuomo has a huge lead. Andrew Cuomo has a lead of 57 percent to 25 percent among women voters in New York State. When it comes to males, Cuomo has a 44 percent to 39 percent lead. Democrats usually get more of the women vote than Republicans but Andrew Cuomo has pushed to make the gender gap even bigger. Cuomo alongside with former rep. Kathy Hochul created the Women's Equality Party which puts Andrew Cuomo's name on another ballot line for the November 4th election. This is what you call fusion voting. This increases the number of votes that he can get as people aligned with the Women's Equality Act will vote for him as well as people that are aligned with the Democratic party will vote for him.

He named the party after his Women Equality Act, an act that enforces more action against sexual harassment, domestic violence, and improves abortion rights in New York State. Being apart of the Women's Equality Party only furthered the gender gap as his Republican opponent, Rob Astorino opposes abortion rights.

Other than gender gap there are several factors that are limiting the competition between Rob Astorino and Andrew Cuomo. Democrats have a 2-to-1 enrollment advantage over Republicans in New York. Also, among independents Cuomo leads Astorino 43 percent to 33 percent.

The Importance of the Senate Races in Shaping New York Politics

Recent polling has shown that Incumbent Democratic Governor has a large lead over his republican opponent, Rob Astorino. Rather than focusing on that race people have turned to the State Senator races in New York State. Both the Republicans and Democrats are waging an expensive, aggressive battle in races in the Rochester area, the Hudson Valley and Long Island. Business groups in New York City are raising huge amounts of money for Republican campaigns in those key swing districts.

In order to win the majority the Republicans or Democrats have to win 32 seats in a 63 seat Senate. There are few key districts that can change the shape of New York politics. The 40^th, 41^st, 46^th, 55^th districts are closely contested.

In other news, with the Governor’s race pretty much locked up, Governor Andrew Cuomo has faced some criticism for not fully campaigning for a Democratic Senate. Four months ago, the Working Families Party endorsed Andrew Cuomo after he ensured that he would push for a more “progressive” New York. In order for that to work Governor Cuomo has to tilt the balance of power to the side of Democrats. Some of his supporters believe that he has failed to keep his promise as Governor Cuomo has not ruled out endorsing a Republican incumbent from Buffalo, Mark J. Grisanti. A key Democratic politician that is pushing for a Democratic majority in the State Senate is Major Bill de Blasio. Blasio sent his top political aide, Emma Wolfe to help Democratic senators that are in hot water. One of Bill de Blasio’s main goals is to break up the coalition between the Republicans in the senate and the small group of Democrats that align themselves with the Republicans.