NY-21st Outshining Neighboring Race

The NY-23^rd Congressional election is shaping up to be one of the most expensive House races in the state. The Republican incumbent, Tom Reed, has outpaced his Democratic challenger, Martha Robertson, is terms of fundraising by nearly a 2:1 ratio ($2.5m and $1.5m, respectively). This doesn’t tell the whole story however. Robertson, although raising significantly less, has roughly the same amount of money waiting to be spent.

Analyzing the finances reveals that just over half ($1.4m) of Reed’s contributions come from PACs and Large Contributions (between $200 and $2,500) account for another $1 million. By comparison, Robertson is receiving two-thirds of her money from Large Contributions, while her Small Contribution receipts account for one-fifth of her total.

This race has seen very little outside spending. The incumbent Reed is already expected to win according to RealClearPolitics, so it follows outside groups are taking little interest. Nearby races like the NY-21^st see more outside spending because of the expected tightness of the outcome. Thesouthwestern NY-23rd district has seen only $50,000 in outside spending compared to $1 million spent in the 21^st district. Interestingly, the majority of the money coming out-of-state and out-of-district is going towards the Reed campaign and little is funneled to the Robertson HQ.

A relatively expensive House race in New York that is really not all that locked up for Reed, according to another source. Could the outside groups simply be focusing on the neighboring, open race in the North Country and expecting the two-term incumbent to come out on top? The money trails seem to suggest that.