What does the NY21 poll REALLY say?

A recent 7 News - Siena poll shows Elise Stefanik with a comfortable lead over her Democratic opponent, but what does the poll really say? 

A majority of both Democrats and Republicans polled support: 

"...comprehensive Immigration Reform that would include a pathway to citizenship for those already here as well increased border security" 

"...the Buffet Rule which would apply a minimum income tax rate of 30 percent on individuals making more than a million dollars a year"

A "limit the number of terms for members of both houses of Congress"

"...legislation that would change the federal minimum wage from $7.25 per hour to $10.10 per hour"

"On a lot of these issues, there are not big differences between democrats and republicans," said Steve Greenberg, Siena Research Institute.


If the election were held tomorrow, 46% of those surveyed would vote for Elise Stefanik (pictured below - source: AP)

Only 33% would vote for Democrat, Aaron Woolf (below - source: AP)

Perhaps most interestingly, Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello garners 10% 

Despite running two businesses and working 50 hours a week, Mr. Funiciello has built an impressive grassroots campaign and earned unusually high poll numbers for a third party candidate. There is a movement afoot led by some St. Lawrence County residents to urge Mr. Woolf to vacate the ballot and endorse Mr. Funiciello. Many in the district see both major party candidates as outsiders to the district, but given North Country aversion to New York City politicians there is a particularly pronounced angst aimed at multi-millionaire Aaron Woolf due to his longtime NYC residency and political connections to Assembly Speaker Silver. 

Democrats Uphill Climb for House Starts in North Country and Might End on L.I.

Democrats have a steep hill to climb while trying to claim back the House. 

"Democrats must pick up a net of 17 seats to win control of the House." 

Former Syracuse Mayor, Roy Bernardi endorses Republican congressional candidate John Katko in his bid. "I spent the majority of my public service career as a Republican municipal official in an increasingly Democrat city."

The race to fill Rep. Bill Owens, D-N.Y., seat in the NY- 21st district is heating up with Democratic candidate Aaron Woolf claiming his "momentum is building" even though he is still losing in the polls by Republican candidate Elise Stefanik.

"He's obviously a top target" is what a GOP campaign operative said about Eastern Long Island Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop. "Bishop becomes the first House democrat in the Northeast attacked in television as paid for the National Republican Congressional Committee."

Senate Democrats Fail to Overturn Citizens United

The Senate voted this week not to overturn the Supreme Court's controversial 2010 Citizens United v. FEC ruling. The bill would have attempted to limit the unprecedented amount of money being spent in elections, but failed to muster the necessary 67 votes to amend the Constitution in a 54-42 vote.

Proponents of the bill criticize the amount of "dark", or anonymous, money being spent in elections since the ruling, while its opponents argue the bill would severely limit free speech rights in elections.

The Supreme Court ruling has been criticized as the "opening the floodgates" for unknown money being poured into elections, most notably by President Obama in his State of the Union Address directly in front of several Justices. Democrats continue to press the issue of campaign finance reform but have thus far failed to gain legislative traction.

However gloom the Democrats declare the state of our election politics, a massive chunk (over $1 billion) of fundraising money still flows through parties directly. Parties must disclose their donors and are thus largely unaffected by the ruling.

Similarly for candidates, disclosure of direct donations is required. Some interest groups are now allowed to spend without limits, and the results are clear. For reference to a specific election, look no further than the NY-21st election. More than $1 million was spent in outside spending just in the Republican primary, mostly from American Crossroads with only partial disclosure.

Tartan Fever...

Crunch time is fast approaching for the Scots with the referendum for independence scheduled for Sept 18th. I asked a Scottish friend what her thoughts were on the situation and received this response -

  

It is similar to Quebec, not nice at all. I believe we do not have the economic clout to go it alone - we are heavily subsidised by the rest of the Uk; we have our own parliament but if there is a no vote we will be given more power over taxation etc. Scotland has always had its own education system. We live in a democracy but sadly some people are caught up in the whole 'braveheart' nonsense and don't realise if it doesn't work there is no going back!

This sentiment is echoed in recent pieces in the UK and US.

Ed Cox versus Eric Schneiderman

Recently NYGOP Chair Ed Cox has requested from Comptroller Tom DiNapoli the release of emails or contract between the Attorney Generals office and SKD Knickerbocker, a consulting firm. An employee of SKD Jennifer Cunningham, Attorney General Schneiderman's former wife has been accused of”inappropriately lobbying the Attorney General’s office”.

Schmeiderman has apparently been “ducking their FOIA requests” saying “Ms. Cunningham had never represented clients before the Attorney Generals office.” After news broke of his denial of requests he managed to give 72 pages of his offices emails.

The Attorney General's office is being very lucrative. Ducking requests, flip flopping on supposed contact with Ms. Cunningham. Crain's New York Business Said “the office continues to keep many of its communications with Ms. Cunningham under wraps.”

While on the other hand we have Ed Cox who has been accused of Voter Fraud. Cox is said to live in Manhattan but votes on Long Island. Cox's name is not on any property, yet him and his wife are registered to vote there. John Conklin says “legitimate, significant and continuing attachments” to an address will be needed to sway the courts in his favor.

The NYGOP has released its next paid advertisement of the 2014 campaign. It slashes Governor Cuomo and Attorney General Schneiderman on there view to think there supporters to be above the law.

Dark Money Grows

Money that is spent anonymously in elections has reached$50 million this election cycle, the most ever. Dark money expenditures this Congressional election cycle is set to eclipse expenditures of the last Presidential election cycle, when more money is typically spent. Compared to the last midterm election cycle, dark money has grown more than seven fold.

NY-21 sees a tight fundraising capabilities race between Elise Stefanik (R) and Aaron Woolf (D). Despite Woolf hoarding his war chest compared to his opponent, Stefanik and Woolf are marginally tied.

Woolf has gained considerable traction while spending a fraction of what he has garnered, 40% of which is his own personal contribution. Stefanik is firing on all cylinders while saving little of what she has earned, indicating that this could be an uphill battle for her. About a quarter of her fundraising comes from “other” sources, whereas Woolf has <1% in the same category.

Despite the growth of dark money, retirees still play an important fundraising landmark for both candidates competing in the NY-21 race. Stefanik and Woolf have both risen over $100,000 ($60,000 to Woolf and $46,000 to Stefanik) from this politically decisive bloc.

Outside money has seen a rise in one of the most closely watched races in the country, however. Conservative-leaning groups have spent over $1 million dollars and liberal-leaning groups have spent roughly $23,000. The conservative-leaning groups are both SuperPACs as opposed to the liberal-leaning PACs.

The outside spending in this race demonstrates the importance of competition in U.S. politics. NY-21 is one of the tightest races this year, so while it most likely won’t tip the scales of the House majority, the competitive races such as this one shine light on the hot button issues this country is facing.

North Country Happenings

Republican NY-21 Congressional Candidate Elise Stefanik's romantic relationships should be public knowledge, according to a supporter of her Democratic opponent, Aaron Woolf.

Woolf denounced his supporter's letter via his twitter account, but supporter "Middle Class Mike" shot back arguing he had coordinated with Ryan P Smith, NY Democratic Party Regional Field Director.

There are Assembly primary elections for both the 115th and 116th district this Tuesday. In the 115th district, incumbent Republican Janet Duprey will face Plattsburgh teacher Karen Bisso. In 2012 Assemblywoman Duprey prevailed over Ms. Bisso in a very bitter primary, although she lost in all three towns she represents in St. Lawrence County.

In the 116th Assembly "River District," there will be both a Republican and Conservative primary. The victor(s) will face Assemblywoman Addie Russell (D-Theresa) in November.

Dr. Joe Timmerman, a SUNY Potsdam professor and candidate for the St. Lawrence County Legislature, wrote a letter to the editor about New York State's costliest unfunded mandate.

Rob Astorino, the Republican Gubernatorial Candidate, visited St. Lawrence County on Labor Day. Mr. Astorino marched with local unions and Senators Ritchie and Griffo.

Zephyr Teachout spoke by phone with the Watertown Daily Times about her position on guns, marijuana, campaign finance, and the upstate economy. Professor Teachout has committed to visiting the North Country within a week of the primary, should she prevail over Andrew Cuomo.