Friday, September 5, 2014

other upcoming elections...

New York Democrats go to the polls next week - Sept 9 - sorry independent voters you'll have to sit this one out...and bide your time till Nov 4th. Don't expect high voter turnout.

Internationally these are truly interesting...

Scotland holds an independence referendum on Sept 18. Will the Union survive? It's hard to imagine what the Union flag look like without the St. Andrew Cross.

Ukraine holds its parliamentary elections on Oct 26th that could signal a change in its non-Nato aligned status and increase already heightened tensions in the region.

Lebanon holds elections for its legislature on Oct 31 but they might be postponed because of a presidential crisis.

Domestically...I've just gotten bitten to care about these...

After California Governor Jerry Brown's poor debate showing last night, that gubernatorial race just got interesting...

Kansas - not known for generating too much news outside of college basketball - is now something to watch. Pat Roberts (R) reelection bid just took a turn for the - what's going to happen now? and has prompted the RNC to step into the breach. 




Rundown

With 60 days before Election Day here's the latest rundown on some important races ...

  • Andrew Cuomo still possesses a sizable lead in public opinion polls against Republican challenger, Rob Astorino.
  • Yes, there are a few other statewide races - the contest for AG between Eric Schneiderman (D) and John Cahill (R) is largely out of touch for the challenger but who knows maybe the the Governor's Mooreland mess will be sticky enough to ensnare Schneiderman and hurt his efforts.
  • Comptroller Dinapoli's campaign finds him well-up in a semi-recent Quinnipiac Poll against Republican Bob Antonacci.
  • With Bob Duffy (D) Lieutenant Governor not running - Kathy Hochul (D) Cuomo's preferred running mate faces Democratic primary competition from Columbia University law professor Tim Wu. Wu's NYTimes endorsement can't hurt his chances but he'll have to overcome the close ties Hochul has to the governor and the resources it brings. But, in a recent Wall St. Journal piece former LG Richard Ravitch's doesn't think much of his former position...
  • Hillary Clinton issued a robocall on behalf of the governor and his running mate, due to an unexpectedly serious Democratic primary challenge from Fordham law professor Zeyphr Teachout and Columbia law professor Tim Wu.
  • In an uncharacteristic move, NYSUT is attacking Buffalo Senator Mark Grisanti from the right - alleging he is not conservative enough. Pundits see this as an attempt to weaken his chances in the upcoming Republican primary. Senator Grisanti is widely considered one of the most liberal Republicans in his conference, after having voted in favor of marriage equality and the controversial SAFE Act. 
  • The battle for the U.S. House of Representatives poses some challenges in several NY congressional districts.
    • New York 19th District - Gibson (R) vs. Eldridge (D), is one of most closely watched races in the country. Eldridge is challenging war hero Gibson, who's favored to win by a narrow margin. The outcome could come down to their debates scheduled in October.
    • New York 23rd District - Reed (R) vs. Robertson (D), Reed's favored to win but no polling data is available. Reed's "projected" to win by pundits...
    • New York 21st District - Stefanik (R) vs. Woolf (D), is an open seat and gaining national attention. This North Country seat was until recently a safe GOP pickup but that's changed. Woolf is favored to hold the seat vacated by Bill Owens. Woolf's war chest outpaces Stefanik's but with national attention and outside money it is attracting, flip a coin.