Post Election Roundup - NY 18th Focus

The Republican swing this election cycle came up to the NY-18th shores but ebbed, just shy of a 1.5% loss of former Congresswoman Nan Hayworth (R). Looking at the data provided by the New York State Board of Elections tells us that Sean Patrick Maloney's narrow win boiled down to Orange County, in which his 4,000 vote lead overshadowed his loss of Putnam County (he won the parts of Westchester Duchess counties by less than 1,000 votes each).

joemygod.BlogSpot.com

Siena polling found Nan Hayworth down by at least five points before the election, underrepresenting Putnam County voters in the poll. Hayworth won Putnam County by a substantial 9% margin, nearly erasing Maloney's lead entirely. Perhaps a more representative poll by Siena would have found Hayworth in a tighter race and maybe turnout would have been higher. In Siena's defense, however, their polling methods attempt to account for population variations between counties. Orange County's 51% against Putnam's 26% in the poll makes statistical sense when many more people live in Orange County than Putnam.

Maloney's fundraising advantage certainly did not hurt his campaign. He was able to raise over four times the amount of small donations and twice as many large donations. Hayworth self-funded her campaign to the cool tune of $635,000 but relied less on PAC money than Maloney.