More Than Meets the Eye?

As reported by Blotter Ryan Eboh, the 24th Congressional district race has been turned on its head. But it is important to read between the lines. Incumbent Dan Maffei (D) commanded a certain lead last month against John Katko (R), but according to a new Siena poll, Katko has surged right past Maffei. Analyzing both polls finds newfound name recognition and independent support for Katko alongside withered women support for Maffei. In addition, the public seems tired of Maffei's negatively focused campaign strategy.

It seems as though Maffei is out of gas just before the finish line next Tuesday. But could there be more to the poll than just these glaring and defeating statistics?

Syracuse.com

The Siena polls issued last month and this week's have plenty of demographic similarities, but differ in one all-important factor; the elderly. The September poll's age demographic broke down the bracket from Under 55: 43% to 55 and Older: 57%, compared to this week's breakdown of Under 55: 37% and 55 and Over: 62%. Looking at who voters would choose if the election were now, the elderly vote flipped from Maffei to Katko. While the gap does not completely invalidate the new poll, it does have the ability to skew reality.

The Maffei campaign was quick to distance itself from the poll, citing methodology errors. Rep. Maffei's campaign manager, Kane Miller, explained that internal polls by both camps show a Katko loss, although a much smaller loss than last month's poll. Regardless of oversampling the elderly, the two polls' consistency illustrates an underlying shift in the once finished race. It cannot be overlooked that the gender gap fully reversed itself in Katko's favor and it's hugely perceived (50% think so) that Maffei is running a negative campaign.

Just days away from Election Day, this race isn't over yet.