Gibson (NY-19) Steamrolls Ahead to Election Day

Incumbent Chris Gibson (R) holds a steady advantage to his opponent, Sean Eldridge (D) in New York's 19th Congressional District. Mainly, Representative Gibson's strong independent and Democrat support spell doom for the Eldridge campaign, according to the recent survey by Siena. Eldridge's low rating even among Democrats and the perception of his negative ad war only add to his problems. Gibson may be buoyed by respondent's agreement that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Vast majorities of Republicans and Independents (and an even split of Democrats) don't think we're headed on the right track, and it is clear among other demographic breakdowns such as gender, region, and political ideology. Only those supporting Sean Eldridge, by a measly six-point margin, think we're headed in the right direction.

Also hurting Eldridge is his carpetbagger noose, and his deep-pocket turn to negative advertisements while Gibson is perceived as a positive campaigner.

poughkeepsiejournal.com - Sean Eldridge (left) and Chris Gibson (right)

Despite raising and spending considerably more money than the incumbent, Sean Eldridge does not have the poll numbers to back his fundraising capabilities... however over half of his war chest is self-financed. While Gibson has not financed his own campaign, his PAC contributions make up the difference between him and Eldridge's own money. It is important to note that Gibson's $3 million to Eldridge's $5 million looks quite a bit better for Gibson when checking how much cash he has; $1.2 million to Eldridge's $300,000. The outside spending in this race, just over $2 million, has been primarily hurled at the Eldridge camp or favoring Gibson.